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Reviewing 2015 OLED Industry through Keywords

  1. OLED TV

OLED TV, first released in Q4 2013, recorded approximately 50,000 units of shipment each in Q1 and 2 this year. The shipment increased to 100,000 units in Q3, more than twice the amount of each quarter in H1 2015. As it is estimated that close to 200,000 units were released in Q4, over 90% of LG Display’s 2015 target is expected to be achieved. This is considered to be showing price competitiveness against other TV as the price of OLED TV fell to 1/2 of the initial price and effectiveness of aggressive marketing emphasizing the advantages of OLED TV compared to newly released LCD TV. In Q3 earnings results announcement, LG Display revealed their plan of 1,000,000 units of OLED TV panel shipment in 2016 and forecast OLED TV’s growth. For the industry, 2015 has been the year that secured foothold for OLED TV’s market expansion.

 

  1. Galaxy S6 Edge

At the time of Galaxy S6 and Galaxy S6 Edge’s release, Samsung Electronics estimated the initial supply to be 50:50. However, Galaxy S6 Edge showed 70% in actual demand and this led to shortage in supply. Samsung Display met the demand by starting flexible AMOLED line operation earlier than scheduled. 2015 proved future market growth potential by opening consumers’ wallets through designs possible only with flexible AMOLED panel.

 

  1. Samsung Display Supply Diversification

During the Q3 earnings announcement, Samsung Display revealed their plan to expand non-Samsung clients by 30%. Accordingly, in Q3, when smartphone market’s growth was expected to slow down, the sales performance improved by 13% compared to its previous quarter through key client’s new product release and expansion of client base. Particularly, the market occupation of AMOLED panel shipped toward China is analyzed to have increased within the global mobile market as Chinese set companies released AMOLED panel equipped smartphones.

 

  1. Apple’s OLED Application

Apple, which has been using LCD panel for all products, first applied flexible AMOLED panel, produced by LG Display, to 2015 smartwatch Apple Watch and drew much attention. In H2, Apple diversified suppliers by using Samsung Display’s flexible AMOLED panel. This move is analyzed to be groundwork for flexible OLED application to smartphone following smartwatch. 2015 has been a year with much interest in when flexible AMOLED panel equipped iPhone will be released.

 

  1. OLED Lighting

Global OLED lighting industry went through a great transformation in 2015. OLEDWorks announced they will acquire key parts of Philips’ OLED lighting business, relevant production facilities, and intellectual property. With this take over, OLEDWorks greatly expanded business through widened product portfolio and simultaneous lighting panel mass production in the US and Germany. LG Chem. transferred OLED lighting business to LG Display. The value of transfer is 1.6 billion KRW, and it is seen to be a strategy to increase competiveness by transferring the business to LG Display with their OLED panel mass production knowledge and to focus on existing materials business. The take over and business transfer of the main players in OLED lighting industry, OLEDWorks and LG Chem., are following their own business strategy. However, following these moves, related investment is expected to be delayed for some time and eyes are on how these will affect the OLED lighting business overall.

 

[Expert Talk] OLEDWorks’ Co-founder David DeJoy Talks New Lighting Experience

Through an interview with OLEDNET and his presentation during the OLEDs World Summit (October 27-29), OLEDWorks’ co-founder, chairman and CEO David DeJoy discussed OLEDWorks’ vision and OLED lighting.

 

OLEDWorks hit the headlines in April this year when it was announced they would acquire key OLED assets and relevant intellectual property from Royal Philips whose main OLED product is Lumiblade. This acquisition was finalized earlier this month, taking this relatively small but already dynamic player within the OLED lighting industry to another level with plans that include continuing production in both Germany and the US, and expanding the product portfolio.

 

As the world’s first area light source, OLED lighting is naturally diffusive. As the light is uniform without flickers, the glare and eye fatigue is minimized. Although it is similar to LED in that it is a solid-state lighting, OLED produces little heat and color temperature can be easily adjusted. With its thinness of the panel and no need for extra installation space, OLED lighting can bring forth new design perspectives and applications. During his talk, DeJoy commented that OLED will bring the light closer to the user and will deliver a better light experience in diverse settings including patient rooms, recovery rooms in hospitals, retail, and museums.

 

Although customer response to OLED light quality is extremely positive, DeJoy acknowledged that it is facing many challenges in entering the lighting market and divided the strategy to overcome this into “the four ‘A’s”: awareness, adaptability, availability, and affordability.

 

The ‘awareness’ includes education about the technology and benefits, as well as confidence in the OLED lighting technology reliability. The effort to build the OLED lighting awareness includes government partnerships such as DOE Funded Gateway Projects, and NYSERDA Demonstration Projects. Designers and architects are also increasingly turning to OLED for inspiration and source material. OLED lighting’s previously mentioned advantages are closely linked to the second ‘A’, ‘adaptability’. Its thinness, lack of heat, and no need for additional installation space mean that OLED lighting can easily be integrated into fixtures and used as a building material by being directly mounted on surfaces. On the subject of ‘availability’, DeJoy emphasized that more luminaire and final products should become more available to specifiers. He added that there are many in product development but they need to get into the hands of the end user. Discussing the ‘affordability’ of OLED lighting, DeJoy used OLED panel cost scenario published by the US Department of Energy which estimates that the panel price will continue to fall to reach US$10/klm, which corresponds to approximately US$100/m2, in 2025. DeJoy added that when examining the affordability of OLED lighting, the total cost has to be considered. For example, OLED lighting does not require heat sink or extra installation cost. Also, many applications do not need very high lumen output with focused beams; “it is not all about $/klm”.

 

Source: US Department of Energy

Source: US Department of Energy

 

DeJoy explained that OLEDWorks long term goal is making OLED lighting adaptable and available, making it easier to change the lighting when it is broken, and be user friendly. He reported that OLEDWorks will continue to expand the product portfolio, which now includes Lumiblade, for “increased performance, additional form factors, and additional CCT options, while reducing product costs”. DeJoy also added that this is “akin to the LED evolution and consistent with the U.S. Department of Energy forecast”. With their proactive and enthusiastic approach to the OLED lighting market, the industry is watching OLEDWorks with great interest. OLEDWorks’ effect on OLED lighting market is expected to be significant.

Lighting Industry Market Control by Stable Major Companies, OLED Lighting Shakes It Up

Key companies of lighting industry, such as Osram, Philips, Panasonic, and GE Lighting, occupies approximately 70% of total lighting market and maintains stable entry barrier. Most of the key companies are also actively carrying out OLED lighting development as next generation lighting. As they reveal new OLED lighting panels each year, it is estimated that these companies will play a major role in next generation lighting market.

However, once OLED lighting market is vitalized, the existing lighting companies’ stable market control is expected to be rattled.

OLED Lighting Annual Report, published by UBI Research, pointed out that major lighting companies have already invested in LED lighting in large scale, and estimated until the investment cost is returned new investment for OLED lighting will be difficult. To stimulate OLED lighting market the report suggested push market, a strategy being used in display market. According to the report, the production cost competitiveness can be achieved through aggressive investment by LG Chem. and new OLED lighting companies such as Lumiotec. The report also estimated once OLED lighting market is open through aggressive investment and push market strategy, the lighting market leadership will be transferred to new OLED lighting companies which invested in OLED lighting early from major companies which missed investment timing.

Total Lighting Market Structure Forecast

Total Lighting Market Structure Forecast

OLED lighting market is currently being formed through specialized uses such as for interior/outdoor design, shop, restaurant, medical, and cosmetic. Konica Minolta has already completed mass production line investment and the line has been in operation since the end of 2014. LG Chem. is also positively considering mass production line investment. When OLED lighting panel’s active mass production begins, the market is forecast to expand as specialized lighting and replacement lighting for incandescent and fluorescent lights. From 2020, when OLED lighting panel is estimated to achieve reasonable price as interior lighting through major panel companies’ active mass production, it is estimated it will grow by encroaching part of LED lighting market.

From 2017 OLED lighting panel market for interior lighting is forecast to grow rapidly at CAGR of approximately 90%, and record US$ 5,700 million revenue in 2025. Flexible OLED lighting panel is estimated to be used where normal lighting application is difficult and occupy approximately 27% of OLED interior lighting market in 2025.

Interior Lighting Market Forecast

Interior Lighting Market Forecast

 

[Lighting Japan 2015]What is the keyword for the next lighting industry?

The Lighting Japan 2015 was held on January 14, 2015 at the Tokyo Big Sight in Japan.

At the key note session, Jeffrey Cassis, the senior vice president of Phillips, began the first presentation with the theme of “Delivering the Promise and potential of digital light” emphasizing the notion of digital lighting and connected lighting in terms of the critical issue of how to combine a lighting with a smart city and ecosystem. He also hinted the importance of OLED lighting mentioning that most of the Philips’ R&D is concentrated on OLED despite the fact that the LED lighting will take about 65% of the entire lighting market by 2018.

The second speaker Prof. Ching W Tang from the Hong Kong University expressed “the sympathy with his view on the digital lighting that the OLED lighting will play a critical role” and highlighted the key issue is preparing for the price competiveness. He mentioned that the efficiency of current OLED lighting panel is about 23% and there is a potential to improve up to about 30%. Also he added that there will be a huge renovation in the lighting market if the total efficiency of the OLED lighting panel increases more than 50%.

As demonstrated in the key note session, the key for the future lighting industry can be summarized as both connectivity and OLED. The concept of connectivity which was underlined by the numerous electronics and automobile companies at the last CES 2015 is becoming a primary trend in the lighting industry and it is anticipated to center around the OLED lighting.

150114_Next-lighting산업-Key-word는_1

<Philips senior vice president Jeffrey Cassis>

150114_Next-lighting산업-Key-word는_2

<Hong Kong Univ. Prof. Ching W. Tang >