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2016 AMOLED Market, UBI Forecasts USD 14.8 Billion, IHS 15 Billion…Rapid Growth

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2016~2020 AMOLED Market (Source = UBI Research)

2016~2020 AMOLED Market (Source = UBI Research)

Hyunjoo Kang / Reporter / jjoo@olednet.com

The global AMOLED market is estimated to record USD 15 billion in 2016.

According to IHS, market research company, 2016 global AMOLED market is expected to record USD 15 billion, an increase of 25% from 2015. IHS estimates that OLED’s low yield and lifetime are improving, and new markets such as VR are expanding.

IHS’ forecast is similar to UBI Research’s estimation of USD 14.8 billion.

According to UBI Research’s 2016 OLED Display Annual Report, the global AMOLED market is expected to record USD 14.8 billion and maintain the high growth at CAGR of 49% until 2020. The company estimates that the fast growth will be possible due to active mass production of OLED panel for TV and flexible OLED panel for mobile device, and the start of latecomers’ mass production.

Both research companies expect high growth for OLED panel for smartphone and TV.

IHS forecasts that OLED equipped smartphone will occupy up to 21% of the total smartphone market, an increase of 4% from 2015. Furthermore, the company estimates that the OLED TV panel shipment will increase to over 900,000 units, an increase of 125% from last year.

For UBI Research, the company expects the shipment of 4-6 inch panel for smartphone to be 242.9 million units in this year’s OLED panel market. The shipment for 55 inch or larger large size panel for TV is expected to be 1.2 million units.

Meanwhile, this rapid growth of AMOLED market is being led by Korea. 2016 OLED Display Annual Report estimates that AMOLED panels to be produced in Korea are expected to be approximately 270 million units and occupy about 95% of the total shipment. Korea is also estimated to occupy 96% of the revenue for this market in 2016 with USD 14.218 billion.

 

Not Only Samsung and LG, but Also BOE and AUO…Panel Profit Plunges due to LCD

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Source = BOE

Source = BOE

 Hyunjoo Kang / Reporter / jjoo@olednet.com

Although Samsung and LG both had smooth Q1 2016 for set businesses including TV, display sectors were different. The majority of the industry believes that global oversupply of LCD’s effects was great. Key LCD players in China, who could be seen as responsible for the LCD oversupply, also showed bleak performance. Key global LCD panel companies, including BOE and AUO, also revealed much reduced Q1 2016 profit.

On 28 April, Samsung Electronics and LG Electronics announced that the business profit in Q1 2016 improved. Samsung Electronics recorded KRW 6.68 trillion business profit, a 12% increase compared to Q1 2015. LG Electronics also announced operating profit of KRW 505.2 billion, up 65.5% from last year. Both companies emphasized favorable TV business.

On the other hand, Samsung and LG both received significant damages in display sector. In Q1 2016, Samsung Display recorded operating loss of KRW 270 billion. Samsung Display recorded a profit against expectations. However, the business profit of KRW 39,500 million in Q1 2016 is a 94.7% fall from last year.

Not only Samsung and LG, but display leaders in Greater China region also showed much diminished performance. BOE, which has been aggressively investing in large area LCD mass production, showed a 6.7% increase from previous year with approximately CNY 12,300 million for Q1 2016 revenue. In Q1, BOE showed business profit of CNY 108 million, but profit ratio plummeted compared to the same period in 2015. The profit ratio in Q1 2016 fell to 0.8% from 8% in Q1 2015. On 28 April, Taiwan’s AUO also revealed TWD 5.58 trillion business loss in Q1 2016.

BOE and AUO are both key players within the global LCD TV panel industry, and within the top 5 in the Greater China region. BOE, in particular, is chasing the leader LG Display with aggressive product supply. The fact that BOE recorded dismal results despite this is analyzed to be due to price fall due to the oversupply of LCD and spread of OLED among others.

For global OLED leader for mobile device, Samsung Display, was known to have recorded deficit of approximately KRW 900 billion in LCD despite Samsung Electronics’ strength in OLED smartphone. Essentially, LCD eroded the profit that OLED brought. For LG Display, experts believe that as a leader of OLED for TV market, the company could avoid deficit by making up for the damages from the LCD price fall.

An expert of the display industry explained that LCD leaders such as BOE might have expanded market share with the product supply, but would have received significant damage in profit ratio. However, he explained that compared to 30 inch LCD panel, 50 inch and 60 inch level large area LCD panel received less fallout from the price fall. He then estimated that as the large size TV demand is increasing, the LCD industry could be improved in Q2.

 

LGD Records 40 billion KRW Profit Against Expectations…“1 Million OLED TV Panel to be Shipped 2016”

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Source = LGD

Source = LGD

Hyunjoo Kang / Reporter / jjoo@olednet.com

LG Display reported today unaudited earnings results based on consolidated K-IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards) for the three-month period ending March 31, 2016.

  • Revenue in the first quarter of 2016 decreased by 20% to KRW 5,989 billion from KRW 7,496 billion in the fourth quarter of 2015 and decreased by 15% from KRW 7,022 billion in the first quarter of 2015.
  • Operating profit in the first quarter of 2016 recorded KRW 40 billion, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 34% from the operating profit of KRW 61 billion in the fourth quarter of 2015, and a year-on-year decrease of 95% from the operating profit of KRW 744 billion in the first quarter of 2015.
  • EBITDA in the first quarter of 2016 was KRW 853 billion, compared with EBITDA of KRW 882 billion in the fourth quarter of 2015 and with EBITDA of KRW 1,595 billion in the first quarter of 2015.
  • Net income in the first quarter of 2016 amounted to KRW 1 billion, compared with the net loss of KRW 14 billion in the fourth quarter of 2015, and a year-on-year decrease from the net income of KRW 476 billion in the first quarter of 2015.

LG Display announced its sixteenth straight quarterly operating profit at KRW 40 billion, which resulted from a thorough and profit-focused management based on differentiated technologies in response to a difficult market situation caused by panel oversupply and falling panel prices.

To deal with the difficult market situation, LG Display reduced the manufacturing of TV panels of 30-inches and below, which faced a large fall in prices, while expanding production of 40-inch range TV panels and those of 60-inch and above. The company also increased profitability by focusing on premium differentiated products based on M+ technology and maximized production efficiency in its overall operations by flexibly allocating production between IT product panels and TV panels.

Panels for TVs accounted for 38% of the revenue in the first quarter of 2016, tablets and notebook PCs for 24%, mobile devices for 23%, and desktop monitors for 15%.

With 77% in the liability-to-equity ratio, 153% in the current ratio, and 15% in the net debt-to-equity ratio as of March 31, 2016, the financial structure of the company remains stable.

LG Display will continue to increase profitability by concentrating on premium products such as Ultra HD TV panels based on its M+ technology to respond to a growing demand for large-size TVs, and make efforts to maximize efficiency by improving the manufacturing process in the second quarter of 2016.

Mr. Don Kim, CFO of LG Display, said “Panel shipments in the second quarter of 2016 are expected to increase by a mid-single digit percentage compared to the first quarter. Panel prices are expected to stabilize due to global sports events and an increase in new product shipments.”

 

◆ 65 inch, 30% of Total OLED Panel Shipment… 4-5 Trillion KRW Installation Investment

 

During the morning conference call on 27 April, LGD emphasized that the proportion of panel for ultra large size TV is increasing.

LGD reported that OLED panel shipment in Q1 2016 is slightly less than 200,000 units and estimated they will be able to ship 1 million units this year. While the 55 inch occupied over 85% of the total in 2015, in this year’s quarter the 55 inch proportion decreased slightly and 65 inch increased up to 30%.

LGD is operating OLED panel mass production line at 34,000 units per month as of H2 2015, and explained that the company will achieve Gen8 60,000 units capacity from Q2 2017. This year’s installation investment is expected to be of 4-5 trillion KRW. Along with this, LGD expects global oversupply of LTPS capacity, and revealed they will transform LTPS into plastic OLED (POLED) in stages.

LGD emphasized that the 55 inch FHD line’s golden yield has been almost achieved. The UHD section is also improving yield according to plan.

LED Market Revenue ↓ for First Time…2015, $14,300 Mn

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LED is Gradually Giving Space to OLED Lighting Panel

    LED is Gradually Giving Space to OLED Lighting Panel

 Hyunjoo Kang / Reporter / jjoo@olednet.com

Last year, the global LED market recorded its first decrease. This is analyzed to be due to aftermath of price competition.  the spread of OLED is also one of the reason.

According to recent report of LEDinside, the global LED market recorded revenue of US$ 14.32 billion in 2015. This is a 3% fall compared to 2014, and this is the first time that this market recorded a fall.

This is judged to be due to intense price competition from the oversupply. In fact, 2015 LED’s ASP (average selling price) fell by over 40% compared to 2014 due to price competition.

Along with this, OLED lighting market growth is also becoming one of the factors in LED market depression.

OLED lighting panel is more expensive, and still has technical issues. However, it is light and flexible, and technical issues are gradually improving; OLED lighting market is continuously growing. Above all, that it can create a new market that did not exist in the existing lighting sector is receiving much attention.

IDTechEx forecasts that the OLED lighting panel market will reach US$ 1.8 billion in 2025.

 

 

UDC’s 2015 OLED Emitting Materials Revenue $ 113 million, a 11% Decrease…Still Leading Market

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Source : UDC

Source : UDC

Hyunjoo Kang / Reporter / jjoo@olednet.com

UDC (Universal Display) that is dominating the global OLED emitting materials market, recorded 11% reduced OLED emitting materials revenue in 2015 compared to 2014. Despite the decreased revenue, it maintained its top place in the market.

According to 2016 OLED Emitting Material Annual Report, published by UBI Research, UDC recorded approximately $ 113 million in 2015 OLED emitting materials revenue. In 2014, this company’s OLED emitting materials revenue recorded $ 127 million and led the global market, and maintained its position in 2015.

In particular, this company is a dominating presence in dopant materials sector. In 2015, UDC occupied 82% of the dopant materials sector, and the rest of the companies share the remaining 18%. Based on the phosphorescent patents, it is supplying phosphorescent red and green dopant to Samsung Display and LG Display.

Following UDC’s top place in 2015 global OLED emitting materials market in terms of revenue, Idemitsu Kosan ranked 2nd, and this was followed by Novaled, Dow Chem., and Samsung SDI. In 2013, Dow Chem. was at the top of the market, but since 2014 UDC overtook the leadership. In 2016, LG Display’s OLED TV mass production line operation rate, materials structure of Galaxy Note series to be mass produced in H2, and other factors are expected to affect the OLED emitting materials market.

UDC is scheduled to announce 2016 Q1 performance on 5 May (local time).

 

Foxconn’s Large Size Panel Yield, Equal to Samsung·LG within 2016

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Foxconn is expected to occupy approximately 22% of 2016 Q4 global large size panel yield(Source : Foxconn)

Foxconn is expected to occupy approximately 22% of 2016 Q4 global large size panel yield(Source : Foxconn)

Hyunjoo Kang / Reporter / jjoo@olednet.com

Foxconn is expected to occupy approximately 22% of 2016 Q4 global large size panel yield, similar to the levels of Samsung Display and LG Display.

Foxconn, recently confirmed to buy 66% of Sharp’s stake for $ 3.5 billion, is estimated to actively invest in improving Sharp’s panel competitiveness against Samsung Display and LG Display.

DigiTimes recently reported their research indicates Sharp’s large size panel yield will occupy 5.3% of global market in Q4 2016. This places the company on the 7th place after Samsung Display, LG Display, Innolux, AUO, BOE, and CSOT.

However, Sharp and Innolux are under Hon Hai Precision (Foxconn Technology). If the Q4 2016 large size panel yield of Sharp and Innolux are combined, the global occupancy is added to 21.9%. This is approximately the same level as Samsung Display (23.7%) and LG Display (22.7%).

Foxconn is analyzed to be investing in Sharp mainly with focus on OLED. According to a recent DigiTimes article, Foxconn is planning to invest approximately US$ 1.8 billion in OLED development.

DigiTimes estimates that Foxconn will actively begin mass production of OLED for smartphone from 2018, and expand the production to large and medium-sized OLED panel for TV, notebook, etc. Foxconn is forecast to begin shipment of OLED for TV from 2021, and annually ship 7,200,000 units of OLED panel for TV in 2025.

LCD or OLED…JDI CTO “Will Seize Mobile Market though LTPS”

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JDI’s CTO Emphasizing LTPS Technology(Tokyo=OLEDNET)

JDI’s CTO Emphasizing LTPS Technology(Tokyo=OLEDNET)

Hyunjoo Kang / Reporter / jjoo@olednet.com

As a response strategy for the future smartphone display market, Japan Display (JDI) nominated LTPS evolution. This is to continue the position that JDI achieved within the LCD market through LTPS technology in the OLED market using Advanced backplane technology.

JDI’s CTO, Hiroyuki Ohshima gave a keynote speech titled Future Perspective for Small to Medium-sized Displays in FineTech Japan 2016 (April 6-8), and emphasized that they will continue developing backplane technology prowess.

Furthermore, Ohshima stressed that whether the mobile display’s frontplane is IPS LCD or OLED, the key backplane technology is LTPS. he explained that unlike LCD’s stabilized technology, OLED still has issues that need to be solved such as high uniformity and stability. However, he added that OLED is the best technology to achieve flexible display comparing the merits of LCD and OLED.

Ohshima told the attendees that LTPS is a widely used technology applied to both LCD and OLED, has high electron mobility compared to other TFT technology, and high resolution, low power, etc. are possible. From 2015, JDI has been using 60 Hz Gen1 LTPS technology, and expected to use 30 Hz Gen2 Advanced LTPS from 2016, and Gen3 with 15 – 5 Hz from 2017. The evolved technology can greatly reduce energy consumption compared to the previous versions of the technology.

Furthermore, Ohshima is planning to respond to the small to medium-sized display market by developing in-cell touch, low power technology, etc. He added that small to medium-sized display, represented by smartphone, requires the integration of developed technology

FineTech Japan 2016 (April 6-8) is a display technology related exhibition held in Tokyo Big Sight. The 26th annual event is participated by approximately 260 companies including Samsung Display, BOE, and Japan Display.

Zhaohong Zhang, BOE’s CEO, “Will Become 8K TV Market Pioneer”

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BOE’s CEO Emphasized They Will Lead 8K TV Market(Tokyo=OLEDNET

BOE’s CEO Emphasized They Will Lead 8K TV Market(Tokyo=OLEDNET)

Hyunjoo Kang / Reporter / jjoo@olednet.com

China’s TFT-LCD company, BOE, revealed ambition that it will lead the 8K market within the TV sector.

At the Technical Conference of FineTech Japan 2016 (April 6-8), BOE’s CEO Zhaohong Zhang gave a keynote speech titled Strategy of Adaptation and Innovation, and emphasized that the large size TV will notably grow, and BOE will lead the large size 8K TV market.

Zhang explained that he believes the enlargement will become the growth engine for the global display market. Accordingly, he estimates that the enlargement of monitor and TV among others will spread. He added that the display market will find it difficult to grow rapidly, and the display will become larger and mobile products of FHD 400 ppi or higher and TV products of UHD 4K or higher will expand.

Zhang emphasized that BOE became the victor by earning market opportunity through scale and value innovation, affirming the determination to lead the large size TV market. In terms of BOE’s innovation directions, Zhang suggested several keywords including ▲Picture ▲Power ▲Health ▲Price ▲Panel and ▲Pilot.

In particular, BOE’s policy is to make a winning move in large size display sector. Within the smartphone and tablet sectors, Zhang plans to place UHD 4K display at the front, and lead the 8K era within TV sector. He further emphasized that with the forecast of rapid growth of large size 8K TV market from 2018, BOE will become the pioneer in 8K technology and product. In future, BOE is planning to apply 8K to all panel series for TV.

Additionally, Zhang’s strategy includes low energy consumption actualization through backplane TFT semiconductor and high aperture ratio technology. Furthermore, he stressed that by developing display that lowers eye fatigue and corrects color, BOE is considering viewer’s health too. He revealed that in order to enter the new application sectors such as automotive, medical, AR, and VR, BOE will carry out development on high resolution, touch module, flexible panel, etc.

FineTech Japan 2016 (April 6-8) is a display technology related exhibition held in Tokyo Big Sight. The 26th annual event is participated by approximately 260 companies including Samsung Display, BOE, and Japan Display.

2015 OLED Emitting Materials Market, Dow Chem and LG Chem in Slump…Why?

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Hyunjoo Kang / Reporter /jjoo@olednet.com

 

Source: UBI Research, 2016 OLED Emitting Materials Annual Report

Source: UBI Research, 2016 OLED Emitting Materials Annual Report

 

In the midst of UDC`s domination of 2015 global materials market, with Japanese Idemitsu Kosan`s rapid growth and slump of emitting materials companied, there has been changes to the enviroment.

According to [2016 OLED Emitting Materials Annual Report] to be published by UBI Research in mid-April, the 2015 global emitting materials market recorded approximately a 17% growth compared to 2014

 

 

UDC’s revenue decreased from previous year, but remained at the top, the same as 2014. UDC was closely followed by Idemitsu Kosan despite its fourth place in 2014.

Such growth of Idemitsu Kosan is mainly due to its supply expansion in regards to Korean companies such as Samsung Display and LG Display. In 2015, Idemitsu Kosan began actively supplying Samsung Display with blue materials. Together with the increase in Idemitsu Kosan’s client LG Display’s OLED panel for TV mass production line’s operation rate, Idemitsu Kosan’s supply increased.

 

2015 Global OLED Emitting Materials Market Ranking Source: UBI Research, 2016 OLED Emitting Materials Annual Report

2015 Global OLED Emitting Materials Market Ranking
Source: UBI Research, 2016 OLED Emitting Materials Annual Report

 

◆ Samsung Display to Determine Up and Down of Companies

On the other hand, some OLED emitting materials companies that ranked high until 2014 showed poor performance. Dow Chem., that reached the second place in 2014 after UDC in revenue, fell to the fourth place in 2015 due to a big sales decrease. The third and fifth companies in 2014, LG Chem and Duksan Neolux respectively, fell below fifth place in 2015 due to the same reason.

Dow Chem. and Duksan Neolux are analyzed have recorded sales decrease in comparison to 2014 due to the supply chain changes of Samsung Display. In the case of LG Chem, the sales fell as the Samsung Display’s supply volume decreased.

However, Samsung SDI recorded sales increase, and entered within the top 5 in 2015. This company’s performance improved as it supplied Samsung Display with green host.

The company that recorded greatest growth is a Germany company Novaled that Samsung SDI, then Cheil Industries, took over. This company recorded approximately 150% revenue increase compared to previous year, and reached the third place in 2015 following UDC and Idemitsu Kosan. With the increase in OLED panel for TV mass production line’s operation rate, Novaled’s revenue greatly increased.

UBI Research estimated that in 2016, LG Display’s OLED TV mass production line operation rate and Galaxy Note series’ material structure, to be mass produced in the second half, will greatly affect revenue of OLED emitting materials companies.

Foxconn’s Takeover of Sharp, Who is the Biggest Casualty?

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Hyunjoo Kang / Reporter / jjoo@olednet.com

 

Sharp_Head_Office(Source : Wikipedia)

Sharp_Head_Office(Source : Wikipedia)

Following Foxconn’s takeover of Sharp, which company will end up suffering the most?

On March 30, Taiwan’s Hon Hai’s Foxconn agreed to buy Sharp for about $ 3.5 billion. With this decision, there is much focus on how it will affect the global display market.

 

Korean companies leading the global display market such as Samsung Display and LG Display as well as key display companies in Japan, China, and Taiwan are keenly interested in this takeover.

 

Some experts analyze that, out of these companies, the one being most threatened by this takeover will be Japan Display.

 

◆ Japan Display, May Not be Able to Retain OLED Supply for iPhone

 

As it became known that iPhone will replace the LCD panel with OLED for future iPhone, it is expected to create a great business within the OLED market. 3 companies, Samsung Display, LG Display, and Japan Display, have been considered as the most likely supplier for iPhone’s OLED panel.

 

Some media have reported that Samsung Display and Apple have already signed OLED supply agreement, and LG Display and Japan Display are known to be having a heated competition to become the secondary supplier.

 

However, this Foxconn’s takeover of Sharp could break the big 3. Of these, experts estimate that Japan Display is most likely to be pushed out.

 

iPhone’s largest LCD panel supplier is LG Display, with over 50%. Following this, Samsung Display and Japan’s Sharp are the second and third LCD panel supplier for iPhone but the order has not been confirmed.

 

As it became known that Apple will utilize OLED, Japan Display with investment plans for OLED mass production line rose as the possible panel supplier for Apple. Rather than Sharp, Japan Display became a strong candidate for OLED supplier for iPhone along with Samsung Display and LG Display.

 

However, it all changed when Foxconn bought Sharp. Sharp does not have OLED line for mobile device at the moment, but its small device LCD line is LTPS based that could be transformed to OLED. Foxconn, expected to invest in OLED sector, is likely to turn Sharp’s small device LCD line into OLED line.

 

Furthermore, Foxconn is Apple’s key production collaborator. Worse, even Foxconn’s newly bought Sharp is one of Apple’s panel suppliers. Excluding Samsung Display and LG Display with verified OLED technology prowess, Apple could choose Foxconn with closer connections rather than Japan Display as an OLED supplier.

 

One display industry expert explained that Foxconn could push out Japan Display regarding iPhone OLED supplier issue, and even if that does not happen, it will have very narrow standing. He added that although compared to Samsung Display and LG Display, Foxconn and Japan Display are both latecomers in OLED sector, Foxconn is in a more favorable position due to its solid relationship with Apple.