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UBI Research、2017 OLED光源採用動向及び市場レポート発刊 : LG Display、照明用OLED光源の本格的な量産開始による市場開花期待

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■ LG Displayは、9月末から第5世代照明用OLED光源の量産を開始

■ OLED光源市場は、2021年に約19億米ドル、2025年には約58億米ドル規模まで拡大

 

韓国LG Displayは、9月末から第5世代照明用OLED光源の量産を開始する予定で、OLED照明市場が本格的に開花できるかに注目が集まっている。LG Displayによると、月産規模は15,000個で、今後は90,000個まで生産可能な設備が整う。

 

UBI Researchが発刊した『2017 OLED Lighting Annual Report』では、世界のOLED光源市場は、2020年から大きく成長し、2021年には約19億米ドル規模になると見込まれている。また、2017年から2025年まで年平均85%の成長を見せつつ、2025年には58億米ドル規模になると予想されている。

 

OLED光源は、薄くて軽くてた柔らかなパネルを実現できるため、設置スペースの制限がなく、デザインの自由度が高い。また、発熱とフリッカー（Flicker）現象が少なく、安らかな雰囲気を作ることができるため、一般的な室内照明のみならず、車、展示、医療向けにもOLED光源が採用されている。

 

しかし、OLED照明市場はモバイル機器とTVに積極的に採用中のOLEDディスプレイ市場と比べ、成長が遅い傾向がある。ドイツOsramは主に車載用OLED照明向けの開発に集中しており、オランダPhilipsはOLED照明事業部を米国OLEDWorksに売却した。また、住友化学とコニカミノルタなど、日本のパネルメーカーも産業や医療用、その他の様々な分野に採用可能なOLED照明を開発しているものの、大きな成長は期待できなかった。

 

今回LG Displayによる第5世代OLED量産ラインの稼働開始で、照明用OLED光源の価格は100x100mmを基準に10米ドル以下まで下がると期待されている。また、室内照明だけではなく、車載用照明、展示用照明など、様々な分野に採用される見込みで、成長が遅いOLED照明市場に活力を与えられるかに期待が集まっている。

 

UBI Researchは、LG Displayが世界の照明用OLED光源市場全体に占める割合は、2017年に約70%、2020年には約50%となり、OLED光源市場をリードし続けると予想した。

 

『2017 OLED Lighting Annual Report』には、次世代照明市場の動向と有望アプリケーションの分析、LG Displayの投資によるOLED光源コスト分析、OLED光源市場展望などに関する記述が含まれている。特に、OLED光源市場展望とOLED光源用発光材料市場展望、OLED光源用材料及び部品市場展望、OLED光源用装置市場を様々な観点から分析したため、関連企業がOLED照明市場を把握する上で参考になると期待されている。

 

 

<OLED光源市場全体の売上高展望 >

 

Lighting Industry Market Control by Stable Major Companies, OLED Lighting Shakes It Up

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Key companies of lighting industry, such as Osram, Philips, Panasonic, and GE Lighting, occupies approximately 70% of total lighting market and maintains stable entry barrier. Most of the key companies are also actively carrying out OLED lighting development as next generation lighting. As they reveal new OLED lighting panels each year, it is estimated that these companies will play a major role in next generation lighting market.

However, once OLED lighting market is vitalized, the existing lighting companies’ stable market control is expected to be rattled.

OLED Lighting Annual Report, published by UBI Research, pointed out that major lighting companies have already invested in LED lighting in large scale, and estimated until the investment cost is returned new investment for OLED lighting will be difficult. To stimulate OLED lighting market the report suggested push market, a strategy being used in display market. According to the report, the production cost competitiveness can be achieved through aggressive investment by LG Chem. and new OLED lighting companies such as Lumiotec. The report also estimated once OLED lighting market is open through aggressive investment and push market strategy, the lighting market leadership will be transferred to new OLED lighting companies which invested in OLED lighting early from major companies which missed investment timing.

Total Lighting Market Structure Forecast

Total Lighting Market Structure Forecast

OLED lighting market is currently being formed through specialized uses such as for interior/outdoor design, shop, restaurant, medical, and cosmetic. Konica Minolta has already completed mass production line investment and the line has been in operation since the end of 2014. LG Chem. is also positively considering mass production line investment. When OLED lighting panel’s active mass production begins, the market is forecast to expand as specialized lighting and replacement lighting for incandescent and fluorescent lights. From 2020, when OLED lighting panel is estimated to achieve reasonable price as interior lighting through major panel companies’ active mass production, it is estimated it will grow by encroaching part of LED lighting market.

From 2017 OLED lighting panel market for interior lighting is forecast to grow rapidly at CAGR of approximately 90%, and record US$ 5,700 million revenue in 2025. Flexible OLED lighting panel is estimated to be used where normal lighting application is difficult and occupy approximately 27% of OLED interior lighting market in 2025.

Interior Lighting Market Forecast

Interior Lighting Market Forecast

 

OLED lighting, replacing LED is in the not too distant future

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At SID2014, it was proved that OLED lighting has competitiveness in terms of efficiency and can compete with LED for the general lighting.

Konica Minolta developed 131lm/W OLED lighting panel last March. It also released an OLED lighting panel with efficacy of 139lm/W at the SID 2014 and drew more attention. Panasonic also presented on OLED, and drew more attention unveiling a prototype in Author interview.

Considering that the efficacy of currently commercialized LED lighting is about 80~130lm/W, it is analyzed that the fruitful result at the SID 2014 showed the potential of the OLED lighting becoming the general lighting instead of the LED lighting.

The most concerned issues of the OLED lighting are lifetime and cost. For the general lighting, 40,000hr, which the OLED panel makers target, is estimated enough considering replace period of the lighting, but the issue is the cost. Compared to the LED, the OLED lighting is expensive and currently forms a high-end lighting market. However, it is inevitable to down the cost for entering the general lighting market. Although LG Chem. announced a price reduction to 200$/Klm from 600$/Klm, investment of the OLED lighting makers in mass-production is vital to reform the general lighting market with the OLED lighting.

The OLED lighting panel has reached the level equal to the LED lighting. Now is the time that the OLED lighting panel companies make a turning point and can leap again by investing as they did with display.

did with display.

140611_Performance report of Konica Minolta’s 139lmW OLED lighting panel SID2014 <Performance report of Konica Minolta’s 139lm/W OLED lighting panel, SID2014>

140611_Panasonic’s 133 lmW OLED lighting panel SID2014

<Panasonic’s 133 lm/W OLED lighting panel, SID2014>

 

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