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スマートフォン用AMOLEDパネル市場、Samsung Displayは2020年までシェア70％を維持

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UBI Researchが発行する「2017 OLED Display Annual Report」によると、スマートフォン用AMOLEDパネル市場は2020年に約570億米ドル規模にまで成長するとし、このうちSamsung Displayのシェアは約72％を占めるものと分析した。

2017年のスマートフォン用AMOLEDパネル市場は、Appleの次期iPhone用へのフレキシブルAMOLEDパネルの採用や中国携帯電話製造企業によるOLEDスマートフォン出荷量増加に支えられ、市場は大きく成長するものと期待されている。

Samsung Displayは、2016年からフレキシブルAMOLEDパネル量産ラインへの大規模な投資を行っている。2017年には増加する需要に合わせ、量産ラインへの投資規模を2016年に比べさらに拡大させるものとみられている。

Samsung Display以外にも大きな動きがあり、LG Displayをはじめ、中国と日本のパネル企業もフレキシブルAMOLEDパネル量産ラインへの投資を積極的に検討しており、同市場は大幅な成長が期待されている。

「2017 OLED Display Annual Report」では、このような投資をもとに、2016年3.744億個であったスマートフォン用AMOLEDパネル市場は2017年5.197億個と約38.8％成長するものと分析される。年平均成長率は39.8％が見込まれ2020年には年産14.22億個の市場をなすものと予想している。

特にSamsung Displayは、高解像度、フレキシブルAMOLEDパネルの技術力と積極的な投資により、後発メーカーとの格差を維持し続けるとみられている。そのため、後発メーカーのAMOLEDパネル量産が本格的に始まるものと予想される2018年以降も70％以上の市場シェアを占めることができるだろうと分析した。

「2017 OLED Display Annual Report」では、2017年に投資予想されるOLED量産ラインのキャパシティ、AMOLED適用のアプリケーショントレンド、主要パネルメーカー別の最新動向と投資現状、サプライチェーンを分析、OLED産業の大きな流れを把握が可能だ。また、2011年からのAMOLEDパネル市場の実績と2021年までの市場の見通しを様々な観点から分析し、今後の事業計画策定に役立つ内容となっている。

 

<スマートフォン用 AMOLEDパネル市場シェアの見通し>

2017年OLED発光材料の市場規模1兆ウォン突破の見通し

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2017年OLED発光材料の市場が1兆ウォンを超える見通しである。

 

ユービー産業リサーチの「OLED emitting material Report-2nd data spread sheet」によると、2016年OLED発光材料の市場は、2015年比で15％増加した約US$650 millionで集計されており、2017年には約US$980 million、ウォンに換算すると1兆ウォンを超える規模になるだろうと展望した。

 

ユービー産業リサーチの関係者は、「OLED発光材料の継続的な価格下落にもかかわらず、2016年サムスンディスプレイとLG Displayの稼働率の増加によって、2016年OLED発光材料の市場が15％上昇したことと分析される。また、2017年には2016年投資が行われたLG DisplayのE4 lineとサムスンディスプレイのA3 lineが本格的に稼動することによって、OLEDの発光材料市場も大幅に成長するだろうと期待される。」と明らかにした。

 

また、「2017年には中国メーカーたちのOLED量産ラインの稼働率が高くなることが予想されOLED発光材料メーカーたちでも注視すべきだろう。」と、「現在、中国企業のOLED発光材料の使用量は少ないが、大規模なGen6 flexible AMOLED パネル量産ラインへの投資が進行中であるため、今後のOLED発光材料の市場では、中国AMOLED パネルメーカーの売り上げが急激に成長することと期待される。したがって、OLED発光材料メーカーたちの成長のためには、中国営業に集中すべきだろう。」と述べた。

 

このように、2017年には、OLED発光材料の市場が大幅に上昇しながら関連企業の競争も激しくなるだろうと予想される。

 

一方、報告書によると、2016年の主要メーカー別実績では、Samsung SDI（Novaled含む）1位を占め、日本のIdemisu Kosanが2位、米国のUDCが3位であった。

 

<2016年AMOLED発光材料の市場実績と2017年の展望＞

<2016年AMOLED発光材料の市場実績と2017年の展望＞

BOE、Flexible OLEDラインに465億元規模の投資決定

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10月28日、中国四川省綿陽市のラジオやTVの情報源によると、BOEが第6世代flexible OLED生産ラインに465億元（約7.8兆円）を投資することを決定した。

2016年12月に着工を開始し、2019年からの量産を目標にしており、capaは月48Kの規模である。これは、中小型ハイエンドのスマートフォンに投入される予定である。BOEは、中国成都にも第6世代flexibleの月45K規模の投資を進めている中で、追加的に増設に乗り出したのである。

最近、中国のOLEDへの投資速度が加速している。 BOEだけでなくVisonox、EDOなどの中国panel企業もGen6 flexible AMOLED panel量産ラインの投資決定や増設が進められている。

現在まで投資が決定されたり、進行中であるBOEのGen6 flexible AMOLED panel量産ラインだけをみても、三星ディスプレーのGen6 flexible AMOLED量産ラインであるA3 lineの総capaの約120kの75％規模である。他の中国panel企業の投資が決定され、capaと検討しているcapaを合わせると、三星ディスプレーとLGディスプレーの追加投資を勘案しても、韓国のflexible AMOLED panel量産capaを超える数値である。

このように、中国の積極的なflexible AMOLED panel量産ラインへの投資が進むにつれて、中国のAMOLED panel市場が急速に成長すると予想される。

Samsung Display OLED Equipped iPhone 7S in 2017? Is it Possible?

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Samsung Display is Expected to Supply OLED for iPhone(Source: Apple)

Samsung Display is Expected to Supply OLED for iPhone(Source: Apple)

Hyunjoo Kang / Reporter / jjoo@olednet.com

On 14 April, one Korean media reported that Samsung Display agreed to supply OLED for Apple’s iPhone, and the forecast that Samsung Display OLED will be used for iPhone 7S (TBA) to be released in 2017 is gaining traction.

According to the Maeil Kyoungjae article published on 14, Samsung Display and Apple signed agreement of OLED supply of 3 trillion KRW worth of 5.5 inch panel a year, with 3 years of supplier right. Subsequently, it is known that Samsung will carry out new investment of total 10 trillion KRW for Gen6 flexible OLED exclusive line A3 factory, and supply 100 million units of OLED panel a year for 3 years from Q2 2017. The majority of the industry estimates that Apple will begin application of this panel from the model to be released in H2 2017.

No official confirmation is Samsung Display’s position. However, it has been widely known within the industry that Samsung Display has agreed to supply OLED for Apple from next year. OLEDNET analyzed whether Samsung Display’s OLED application to the new 2017 iPhone is possible.

UBI Research’s analysis of key Korean OLED manufacturing companies’ Financial Supervisory Service public announcements shows that the volume Samsung Display ordered for A3 line expansion is judged to be 30K. Samsung Display’s current A3 line is 15K volume. When the newly ordered 30K volume is established, the total volume becomes 45K.

1K equals 1,000 units of glass substrate per month. If 1 substrate can produce approximately 300 units of panel, 45K A3 line can mass produce 162 million units of OLED panel per year. Global iPhone sales volume is about 200 million units per year. For Samsung Display to supply about half of this volume, approximately 100 million units a year, the 45K line is enough.

The problem is that Samsung Display does not supply OLED to Apple only. UBI Research analyzes that when OLED panels of Galaxy series for Samsung Electronics, Samsung Display’s biggest client, is considered, 45K volume is not enough; at a minimum 60K is required to satisfy the demand of both Samsung Electronics and Apple.

UBI Research’s Choong Hoon Yi forecast that if Samsung Display carries out additional orders regarding A3 line expansion within this year and is equipped with over 60K volume, the company will be able to handle half of iPhone’s annual OLED supply at a minimum. He explained that the 45K could be insufficient to supply OLED for both Galaxy and iPhone series. Yi added that Samsung Display can at least supply a small volume of OLED to Apple, and have them be applied to the early batch of iPhone 7S (TBA) in H2 2017.

Foxconn’s Large Size Panel Yield, Equal to Samsung·LG within 2016

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Foxconn is expected to occupy approximately 22% of 2016 Q4 global large size panel yield(Source : Foxconn)

Foxconn is expected to occupy approximately 22% of 2016 Q4 global large size panel yield(Source : Foxconn)

Hyunjoo Kang / Reporter / jjoo@olednet.com

Foxconn is expected to occupy approximately 22% of 2016 Q4 global large size panel yield, similar to the levels of Samsung Display and LG Display.

Foxconn, recently confirmed to buy 66% of Sharp’s stake for $ 3.5 billion, is estimated to actively invest in improving Sharp’s panel competitiveness against Samsung Display and LG Display.

DigiTimes recently reported their research indicates Sharp’s large size panel yield will occupy 5.3% of global market in Q4 2016. This places the company on the 7th place after Samsung Display, LG Display, Innolux, AUO, BOE, and CSOT.

However, Sharp and Innolux are under Hon Hai Precision (Foxconn Technology). If the Q4 2016 large size panel yield of Sharp and Innolux are combined, the global occupancy is added to 21.9%. This is approximately the same level as Samsung Display (23.7%) and LG Display (22.7%).

Foxconn is analyzed to be investing in Sharp mainly with focus on OLED. According to a recent DigiTimes article, Foxconn is planning to invest approximately US$ 1.8 billion in OLED development.

DigiTimes estimates that Foxconn will actively begin mass production of OLED for smartphone from 2018, and expand the production to large and medium-sized OLED panel for TV, notebook, etc. Foxconn is forecast to begin shipment of OLED for TV from 2021, and annually ship 7,200,000 units of OLED panel for TV in 2025.

LGD’s Head of OLED TV Development Group, “65·55 inch, Growth Engine”

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LGD’s ChangHo Oh, “65, 55 inch TV are OLED TV’s Growth Engine”(Tokyo=OLEDNET)

LGD’s ChangHo Oh, “65, 55 inch TV are OLED TV’s Growth Engine”(Tokyo=OLEDNET)

Hyunjoo Kang / Reporter / jjoo@olednet.com

LG Display has once again reaffirmed its determination to lead the TV market with OLED as the growth engine. In particular, the company is planning to actively respond to the increase of demand for 65 inch and 55 inch OLED TV.

On April 7, during the FineTech Japan Special Session, ChangHo Oh, LG Display’s OLED TV Development Group, gave a talk titled ‘Technology for Large Size OLED Display’ and emphasized the superiority of large area OLED panel.

As a display for a large size TV, LCD has light leakage issue, but Oh explained that OLED can solve this and actualize natural colors without distortion. Oh added that through self-emitting characteristic of OLED, the demands for large size TV picture quality can be solved, and through freedom in forms such as foldability, the design can be improved to less than 1 mm thickness. Furthermore, he added large size OLED panel’s advantages including superior light actualization in same color sector

a-Si, poly Si, and oxide substrates are mainly used for LCD, and for OLED it is oxide, and poly Si. Oh explained that as a part of responding to the panel enlargement, changing the a-Si of the existing mass production line to oxide could improve enlargement and safety.

Oh reported that as the demand for 65 inch and 55 inch TV is increasing, this will become the growth engine of the OLED market, and that P10 factory establishment in Paju is being carried out.

FineTech Japan 2016 (April 6-8) is a display technology related exhibition held in Tokyo Big Sight. The 26th annual event is participated by approximately 260 companies including Samsung Display, BOE, and Japan Display.

Foxconn to Actively Mass Produce phone OLED in 2018…7.2mn for TV in 2025

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Hyunjoo Kang /Reporter / jjoo@olednet.com

Foxconn Headquarters, Source: Foxconn

Foxconn Headquarters, Source: Foxconn

With the forecast of gradually bolstered investment in OLED by Foxconn that recently bought Sharp for $ 3.5 billion, there is a possibility that this company could actively mass produce OLED panel for smartphone from 2018.

DigiTimes recently reported their research indicates that Foxconn will actively mass produce OLED panels for smartphone from 2018 and increase the OLED panel mass production in stages.

According to DigiTimes, Foxconn is planning to first mass produce small size OLED panel for smartphone and then begin medium size OLED for tablet, notebook, and TV. In 2021, It is expected to release 3 million units of OLED panel for tablet and notebook, and increase it to 10.4 million units in 2025. Hence, Foxconn is expected to occupy a quite significant amount of market share in future OLED panel market.

IT is estimated to begin releasing OLED panel for TV in 2021. It’s OLED shipment for TV in 2021 is expected to be 252,000 units, but it is estimated to gradually increase to record 7.2 million units per year in 2025.

 

◆ “IGZO Technology to be Applied to OLED”

 

In a recent press conference regarding the Sharp takeover, Hon Hai’s Chairman Terry Gou said that IGZO, which is LCD (liquid crystal display) technology of Japan’s Sharp, is better than OLED, Korea’s newest display technology. He further revealed that future Sharp display will utilize IGZO technology for approximately 60% of the panel and OLED for 40%.

IGZO (indium gallium zinc oxide) display is Sharp’s LCD. IGZO is known to have superior picture quality in comparison to the general LCD, with less power consumption. It is used in the majority of smartphone and tablet PC such as iPad.

As Foxconn’s Sharp is IGZO technology’s leading company, DigiTimes estimates that IT will apply the IGZO backplane technology on OLED panel.

UBI Research, an OLED specializing market research company, explained that as Sharp’s small size LCD process is LTPS based, and can be transformed to OLED line, it will be easier for Foxconn to achieve OLED mass production ability through Sharp. He added that this added Foxconn to the lineup of Samsung Display, LG Display, and Japan Display as the likely supplier for iPhone OLED panel for Apple. Furthermore, he analyzed that although Foxconn and Japan Display are both latecomers in OLED sector, Foxconn is in a more favorable position due to its solid relationship with Apple.

2015 OLED Emitting Materials Market, Dow Chem and LG Chem in Slump…Why?

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Hyunjoo Kang / Reporter /jjoo@olednet.com

 

Source: UBI Research, 2016 OLED Emitting Materials Annual Report

Source: UBI Research, 2016 OLED Emitting Materials Annual Report

 

In the midst of UDC`s domination of 2015 global materials market, with Japanese Idemitsu Kosan`s rapid growth and slump of emitting materials companied, there has been changes to the enviroment.

According to [2016 OLED Emitting Materials Annual Report] to be published by UBI Research in mid-April, the 2015 global emitting materials market recorded approximately a 17% growth compared to 2014

 

 

UDC’s revenue decreased from previous year, but remained at the top, the same as 2014. UDC was closely followed by Idemitsu Kosan despite its fourth place in 2014.

Such growth of Idemitsu Kosan is mainly due to its supply expansion in regards to Korean companies such as Samsung Display and LG Display. In 2015, Idemitsu Kosan began actively supplying Samsung Display with blue materials. Together with the increase in Idemitsu Kosan’s client LG Display’s OLED panel for TV mass production line’s operation rate, Idemitsu Kosan’s supply increased.

 

2015 Global OLED Emitting Materials Market Ranking Source: UBI Research, 2016 OLED Emitting Materials Annual Report

2015 Global OLED Emitting Materials Market Ranking
Source: UBI Research, 2016 OLED Emitting Materials Annual Report

 

◆ Samsung Display to Determine Up and Down of Companies

On the other hand, some OLED emitting materials companies that ranked high until 2014 showed poor performance. Dow Chem., that reached the second place in 2014 after UDC in revenue, fell to the fourth place in 2015 due to a big sales decrease. The third and fifth companies in 2014, LG Chem and Duksan Neolux respectively, fell below fifth place in 2015 due to the same reason.

Dow Chem. and Duksan Neolux are analyzed have recorded sales decrease in comparison to 2014 due to the supply chain changes of Samsung Display. In the case of LG Chem, the sales fell as the Samsung Display’s supply volume decreased.

However, Samsung SDI recorded sales increase, and entered within the top 5 in 2015. This company’s performance improved as it supplied Samsung Display with green host.

The company that recorded greatest growth is a Germany company Novaled that Samsung SDI, then Cheil Industries, took over. This company recorded approximately 150% revenue increase compared to previous year, and reached the third place in 2015 following UDC and Idemitsu Kosan. With the increase in OLED panel for TV mass production line’s operation rate, Novaled’s revenue greatly increased.

UBI Research estimated that in 2016, LG Display’s OLED TV mass production line operation rate and Galaxy Note series’ material structure, to be mass produced in the second half, will greatly affect revenue of OLED emitting materials companies.

Blossoming April… Hurt by LCD, Heal with OLED

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Hyunjoo Kang / Reporter / jjoo@olednet.com

Flexible OLED from LGD(CES 2016)

Flexible OLED from LGD(CES 2016)

From April, the display industry is estimated to start mending the damage carried out by LCD with OLED.

 

In Q1 2016, Korean display industry suffered due to oversupply of Chinese LCD panels. Market experts believe that Samsung Display and LG Display will announce large Q1 deficit in April due to LCD.

 

However, the display market is expected to actively improve its performance from April.

 

Dong-won Kim, analyst with Hyundai Securities, estimated that great increase in profit is expected from Q2 2016 due to the increase in OLED operation rate and yield improvement. Also because of profitability improvement effect following LCD panel’s price rebound, the deficit will decrease.

 

LG Display’s performance in OLED sector is expected to noticeably improve. Over 90% of LG Display’s total mass production line is LCD at present. Hence, the fall of LCD price in Q1 is expected to have hit hard and OLED business is also showing deficit.

OLED TV from LG(CES 2016)

OLED TV from LG(CES 2016)

◆ After Harsh Q1, Warm Breeze of OLED… Spring for Equipment Industry Too

 

However, this will change from Q2. Analyst Hyeoncheol So of Shinhan Investment forecast that LG Display’s OLED TV sales volume and revenue in Q2 2016 will increase by 144% and 106% respectively. He added that the business deficit of OLED TV sector will greatly decrease.

 

LG Display is anticipating that the deficit will turn to profit in H2 2017, with the business profit of up to 1 trillion KRW in 2017, an increase of 115%.

 

Samsung Display, whose LCD and OLED ratio is 50:50, is expected to show 900,000 million KRW in deficit in LCD sector this first quarter. However, this is estimated to be compensated to some degree by the profit in OLED.

 

Samsung Display and LG Display are actively carrying out investment in OLED panel mass production line in Q1. As well as the investment in turning the existing LCD line to OLED, investment in new OLED line establishment is actively being carried out.

 

As such, with the optimistic outlook on OLED within the display market, flexible OLED manufacturing equipment companies such as Tera Semicon, Viatron Technologies, and Dong A Eltek had been discussed as the favorites of securities companies. In fact, Samsung Display’s flexible OLED manufacturing equipment related key collaborator AP Systems showed remarkable growth recording 12,100 million KRW in business profit last year.

 

UBI Research forecast that Korean companies will strengthen their dominance with their 2016 AMOLED shipment’s 95% occupancy of the global market. As OLED is becoming stronger in the TV, smartphone, and VR market, this will become a huge growth engine for global panel companies such as Samsung and LG.

 

[Light + Building 2016] OSRAM to Release Automotive OLED Lighting within 2-3 Months

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Hyunjoo Kang, Reporter, OLEDNET

<OSRAM’s O-ring, OLED Product Applied Automotive Rear Lamp>

 

During the Lighting + Building 2016 exhibition (March 13-18) held in Frankfurt, Germany, OSRAM revealed that OLED rear lamp equipped cars will be on the road within 2-3 months.

OSRAM exhibited O-ring, OLED product applied to automotive rear lamp at this exhibition, and OLEDNET could see the fruit of OSRAM’s steady automotive lighting product development.

 

<General OLED Lighting Concept Suggested by OSRAM>

The OSRAM representative at the exhibition explained that OSRAM will continue their focus on automotive lighting and develop products but at the right moment, will enter the general lighting market. The representative added that although only the basic concept of the general lighting is present for now, further development will be carried out in future.

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