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Looking Ahead to 2016 OLED Industry through Keywords

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  1. Flexible AMOLED Investment

In 2016, flexible AMOLED mass production line investment is expected to be actively carried out by Samsung Display, LG Display, BOE, and Japan Display. For Samsung Display to apply flexible AMOLED panel to the new Galaxy model, the mass production line investment is necessary. If they supply flexible AMOLED panel to Apple, volume of the flexible AMOLED mass production to be invested in 2016 is estimated to be grow significantly. LG Display also is expected to actively carry out flexible AMOLED line manufacturing equipment order for Gumi’s P6 line, as well as additional flexible AMOLED mass production line investment following Apple’s demand. BOE is estimated to seriously begin orders for Chengdu’s Gen6 45K flexible AMOLED mass production line.

 

  1. P10

With the announcement of new factory establishment and 1.84 billion KRW investment for part of facilities in Q4 2015, as the first step of the investment, LG Display began site construction for P10 line factory that can produce large area panel. However, the investment direction has not yet been decided. P10 could be directed to only producing large area LCD panel, large area OLED panel, small-to-medium size OLED panel, or large area and small-to-medium size OLED panel simultaneously. China’s Gen8 LCD facilities investment is quite advanced and BOE’s Gen10.5 LCD line investment has also been confirmed. As such how much LG Display’s large area LCD can bring profit has to be carefully considered. Additionally, with the increase of OLED TV consumption and the supply of OLED panel to Apple practically confirmed, OLED investment is essential. P10, Gen11 line, is the world’s largest factory site, and depending on the investment direction in 2016, it is estimated to affect OLED market’s opening time.

 

  1. Chinese OLED

Everdisplay is supplying AMOLED panel to some several Chinese set companies, and Visionox is also expected to actively supply AMOLED panel from 2016. As such, most of Chinese OLED panel companies’ OLED mass production preparation is anticipated to conclude in 2016. Accordingly, second investment by companies including Everdisplay, Visionox, and Tianma is analyzed to be possible and serious movement by China’s OLED industry could occur.

 

  1. Evaporation Equipment

Flexible AMOLED mass production line investment by Samsung Display, LG Display, Japan Display, and BOE, and other Chinese OLED panel companies’ additional installation are expected to be actively carried out from 2016. Amidst this, order of evaporation equipment, OLED production’s essential component, is expected to be an issue.

 

Evaporation equipment currently being used in mass production is mostly Japanese Canon Tokki’s. As this evaporation equipment has been verified in mass production, it is estimated that most companies, including Samsung Display, LG Display, BOE, and JDI, will want to order Canon Tokki’s evaporation equipment. However, as the production capa. of Canon Tokki’s evaporation equipment is limited, the issue is expected to be which panel company will be able to order early. At the same time, this could be a new opportunity for Korean evaporation equipment companies.

 

  1. Samsung OLED TV

At present, the TV industry trend is moving to OLED from LCD. Accordingly, Samsung Display is continuing research to resume their large area OLED for TV panel business. It is analyzed that Samsung Display possesses RGB OLED technology that uses SMS evaporation method, white OLED, and solution process OLED technology. However, as each technology has its drawbacks, they are carefully considering future directions. First, RGB OLED technology is estimated to lack Gen8 mother glass substrate evaporation equipment at present. Solution process OLED method has low material performance. For white OLED, as the key patents are owned by LG Display, technology that avoids these has to be first developed. Therefore, much attention is focused on which technology Samsung Display will use and invest in production line to enter the TV market.

[2015 OLED Evaluation Seminar] Can LG Display and Samsung Display Become OLED Market’s Rule Maker?

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By Hyun Jun Jang

 

At 2015 OLED Evaluation Seminar (December 4) hosted by UBI Research, UBI Research’s president Choong Hoon Yi gave a talk titled AMOLED Panel Industry Trend and Market Forecast discussing OLED industry until 2015 and forecasting 2016 OLED market.

 

Yi presented 2 issues related to flexible OLED. The first issues he discussed was regarding foldable types in foldable display. Yi explained that in-folding is where display is placed inside and out-folding has display on the outside, and revealed that in-folding type is mainly being developed. He also added that these technologies will be useful in FinTech (financial technology: new form of financial technology using mobile, social network, big data, etc.).

 

According to Yi, another issue for flexible display is film application. In order to increase the yield of flexible display, film has to replace cover glass. However, this could lead to unpleasant touch sensation and Yi emphasized technology such as polishing has to be applied to improve this to convince the consumers.

 

Regarding the market, Yi estimated that the total global smartphone market will grow to record approximately 2,000 million units until 2020, with Samsung Electronics’ 400 million units. He also estimated that the OLED display proportion of Samsung’s Galaxy series will continue to increase and that most of Galaxy products will have AMOLED panel in 2019. Of this, Yi announced that flexible OLED and rigid OLED are to record approximately 280 million units and 120 million units respectively. He also forecast that the OLED TV market will grow into approximately 11 million units and that materials and equipment companies will rapidly grow.

 

At present, the display market is entering low growth state, and companies are focusing on strengthening the market competitiveness through new technology development and production potential increase. Samsung Display is actively striving to increase OLED panel’s supply for external companies. LG Display announced 1.84 billion KRW investment for world’s largest OLED focused P10 factory and other areas.

 

Yi reported that as flexible OLED evolves, the mobile display resolution competition of the present will disappear, and he estimated that as LTPS-LCD market decreases, the sales of related panel companies, such as BOE, Sharp, JDI, and LGD, will diminish.

 

Yi also told the audience that he is expecting Samsung Electronics to put OLED TV on the market from 2018 and the sales of the companies, Sharp, AUO, and CSOT, that were supplying them with LCD panels will fall. Essentially, he explained that as the OLED market grows, LCD dealing companies’ position will weaken which will lead to the strengthening of OLED panel production and related companies’ position.

 

When asked about the future of Korean display panel companies, Yi replied that when LCD and OLED are competing, set companies decides the market. However, if OLED can unite the market, Yi emphasized that the display panel will be rebranded as Rule Maker and LG Display and Samsung Display will be in its center.

 

대표님

Korea’s Survival Hangs on OLED; Government Support is Urgently Needed

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The last 5 years of budget for Korean semiconductor, which is a key industry for the nation, and display related industry’s original technology development expenses was researched and analyzed.

 

Electronic information device sector’s expenses can be categorized into semiconductor, display, LED/lighting, and evaluation maintenance fee.

 
In 2011, 130,000 million KRW was provided as technology development expense, but since then the amount annually decreased. In 2015, the amount was 95,000 million KRW, but in 2016, it is estimated to decrease further 42% and only 55,000 million KRW is expected to be provided.

 

weekly focus 1

 

weekly focus 2

 

weekly focus 3

 

 

Semiconductor funding for 2015 occupies 58% of the total budget with 54,800 million KRW. Although that amount will be reduced to 35,600 million KRW in 2016, it is expected to occupy 65% of the total funding.

 

For display section, the 2015 funding is only 19,500 million KRW, a 21% of the total budge. In 2016, this is estimated to fall to 17%.

 

The government funding for display sector, which is the core of Korean electronic information industry, is around the same level as LED/Lighting sector.

 

The rapid reduction of government funding for display industry is expected to cause much difficulty in future display business.

 

weekly focus 4

 

 

The Korean display panel market that is being maintained by 2 companies, Samsung Display and LG Display, recorded 62 billion KRW in 2012. However, it fell to 52 billion KRW in 2014, and the market power is gradually weakening. As Chinese companies are becoming more active in LCD market, Korean companies’ price competitiveness is waning in low-priced panel market.

 

If BOE’s Gen10.5 line begins operation in 2018, Korean display companies’ market power is analyzed to rapidly fall in LCD market. In order for the Korean display business to take-off again, now is the time for the government to fund OLED panel which has high added value.

China’s Gen10.5 Investment, Korean Display Companies’ Countermeasure?

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At the 10th National Research Development Industry General Workshop in Display (8-10 July) in Muju, South Korea, industry-academy experts gathered and held a discussion on the future display strategy under the heading ‘Korean Display Industry Crisis, What is the Solution?’.

 

At the previous keynote speech, vice president of LG Display, Yoon Sooyoung explained that the key points for the third revolution will be design innovation, design freedom differentiated though real image, and picture quality that can closely resemble visual reality. He also added that the third display is OLED that can actualize various advantages such as transparency, flexibility, and high picture quality at once, and considering material/component and mass production technology status, OLED will also be able to achieve competitive prices soon.

 

Samsung Display’s executive director Hye Yong Chu forecast next generation display will be smart display, human friendly, holographic, and disruptive innovation. Particularly she estimated that thorough size and design innovation, flexible display will be able to create new application and market and that flexible OLED will form the core.

 

The shared opinion of Samsung Display and LG Display, key Korean display companies, at the keynote session was Korean display industry’s need to lead the next generation display market in order to prepare for China’s pursuit and requirement of active participation and cooperation from industry-academy to achieve this.

 

During the panel discussion that followed the keynote session, many different opinions were suggested regarding Korean display industry status from academy-industry. Of China’s BOE’s Gen10.5 investment, Samsung Display’s Chu disclosed that investment at the right moment was more important than preemptive investment; the focus will be curved and edge display market expansion and widening the technology gap with latecomers, and investment will be carefully considered before making a decision. LG Display’s Yoon also explained that areas where cost innovation are possible are limited even with investment is carried out as the current display market is different from previous ones. He added that Gen10.5 investment has to be deliberated and emphasized that focus should be on how to make OLED competitive.

 

Against the China’s aggressive investment on Gen8 or higher, Samsung Display and LG Display’s positions are analyzed to be of same opinion of carefully considering investment while pioneering the market maximizing the existing technology prowess.

 

미래 디스플레이 전략 대토론회

 

Korea, China, and Japan’s OLED TV Alliance to Boost the Market

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Korean companies had been leading the OLED TV industry. Before SID 2015 (31 May – 5 June), LG Display and Samsung Display had been the only companies to reveal 4K OLED panels, and until now, LG Electronics has been the only company to sell 4K OLED TV in large quantity. In terms of OLED TV market, despite OLED’s superior characteristics compared to LCD regarding contrast ratio, high viewing angle, fast response time, and thinness, the market share has been limited mostly due to its relative high price. However, this is expected to change soon.

 

LG Electronics has been pushing for OLED TV alliance and corporation with Chinese and Japanese companies. As a result, Chinese and Japanese companies resolved to jump into OLED TV market from the second half of 2015. Japan’s Panasonic and Sony are expected to release OLED TV for the first time later this year. China’s Skyworth, Changhong, Konka, and Hisense are expected begin sales from this fall.

 

Consequently, the number of set companies producing 4K OLED TVs will increase to 7 by the end of 2015. LG Display, the only company that can mass produce OLED panel with 4K resolution, is planning to increase production by 4 times this summer to supply these new to OLED TV set companies.

 

As mentioned above, until SID 2015, LG Display and Samsung Display had been the only companies which showed 4K OLED panels, and with LG Display being the sole company able to mass produce 4K OLED panels. However, in SID 2015, AUO showed their own 4K OLED panel during an author interview session, and CSOT and BOE presented paper on 4K resolution OLED panel. This signifies they possess technology needed for OLED panel production, and with proper investment they can begin mass production.

 

Soon LG Display will no longer be the lone supplier of OLED panels contributing toward increase in shipment of OLED panels and OLED TVs. This will naturally lead to lower cost for consumers and energize OLED TV market.

 

auo1

Chinese Panel Company, Reborn as Center of Mobile Device Display Market?

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Truly’s OLED panel mass production is smoothly being carried out. According to OFweek, Zhang Jintao (Senior Manager of Truly) revealed on May 20 that ‘the construction of Phase I of the company’s AMOLED production plant will be completed in June, and the equipment will be installed in October’. He also added that the production line will begin operation in the first quarter of 2016 after passing through tests.

 

Truly’s AMOLED project was approved by EIA (Energy Information Administration) in May 2014, and began line construction in July. The investment cost is approximately 63,000,000 yuan. For mass production, Truly purchased Samsung Display Gen4.5 line’s LTPS equipment, and ordered SFA’s evaporator. The total area of mass production line is 310,000m2, and total capa. is 30K.

 

Mobile device AMOLED panel companies in China are Visionox, EverDisplay, Tianma, Truly, and BOE. Visionox and EverDisplay are in the process of mass production using evaporators of SNU Precision and ULVA respectively, and supplying panels to several companies. Tianma and BOE are aiming for mass production in the second quarter of 2015.

 

At present, Samsung Display is occupying over 90% of total mobile device display market. However, as Chinese panel companies are expected to actively begin mobile device AMOLED panel mass production from 2016, it is estimated that there will be a significant change to the market flow.

Large Size OLED Panel Technology Match, ‘WRGB vs. Solution Process RGB’

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Large size OLED panel is currently being mass produced by LG Display using WRGB method, and investment in this method for large size panel is being considered by OLED panel latecomers. Another method that can be used to produce OLED is RGB method. In 2013 Samsung Display mass produced using RGB method but halted the process due to problems in yield rate and technology. However, recently as key display companies are developing RGB method using solution process for large area OLED panel, latecomers are having to make a difficult choice in process selection.

 

OLED specialized panel company JOLED, established by JDI, Sony, Panasonic, and Innovation Network Corporation of Japan (INCJ), is aiming for mid-to-large size OLED panel production using solution process. Additionally, other companies including AUO, BOE, LG Display, and Samsung Display are developing large size OLED panel using solution process technology. In 2013, AUO presented 65 inch FHD panel that used solution process technology, and BOE revealed 30.5 inch FHD panel. Panasonic also presented solution process applied 4K panel.

 

According to 2015 White OLED Display Annual Report, published by UBI Research, WRGB method has an advantage in high mass production potential as open mask is used. However, due to the stack structure and color filter use, it has a disadvantage of increased panel production cost. On the other hand, the materials and process technology for solution process are not yet mature, but has the advantage of being able to produce large size OLED panel in Gen 8 size or larger without glass cutting using RGB method. It also can reduce the production cost as the material efficiency is high and does not require color filter.

 

At present the mass produced glass area by the latecomers forecast to manufacture large area AMOLED panel is expected to occupy approximately 30% of the total large area OLED market in 2020, and latecomers’ choice in technology investment will be a key point. Therefore, the large area panel technology leadership will be decided on whether WRGB and solution process methods can solve the issues that each has.

By DaRae Kim, reporter@olednet.co.kr

LG Display Reports Performance, Focus on Structure Differentiation Through OLED TV

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On April 22, LG Display reported their first quarter of 2015 performance announcing their success in OLED TV market entrance with balanced results in mass production yield rate, timing, and management. They also revealed their panel production targets of 600,000 units this year, and 1,500,000 units in 2016.

 

LG Display’s CFO Sang-don Kim announced that “OLED TV was about technology innovation until last year, this year it will be innovation in consumers and yield rate, and by next year it will be decided whether it has popularization potential”. He added LG Display will “focus on increasing the business values rather than immediate profit and methodically proceed with OLED focused strategy for structural differentiation in large size display”. He also revealed LG Display will decide on additional investment after observing OLED TV market’s growth potential.

 

Regarding China’s BOE Gen10.5 investment, a recent issue, he forecast “much time is needed to begin set up and if Chinese companies run into problems while working on enlarging the display it is estimated that they will return to 30inch. Therefore LG Display’s large area panel sales will not be much affected”. He explained in regards to LG Display’s Gen10.5 large area LCD investment that it will be decided after careful examination considering the cost and market maturity.

 

LG Display also revealed a decrease in sales in small to mid-size display, such as tablet, due to seasonal factors. However for large size display, they announced as a result of improved performance, the total business profit recorded approx. 687 million USD, an 11% increase compared to the previous quarter (approx. 578 million USD), and showed surplus in business profit for the 12 consecutive quarters.

 

LG Display CFO Sang-don Kim

LG Display CFO Sang-don Kim

White OLED Display Market to Grow Rapidly to 150 Million Units Production in 2020

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Large size OLED TV production is one of the hot issues within the display market. Although OLED has long been a focus for the next generation display, the market share of OLED display is still low. According to UBI Research, a market research company, despite the continued increase in OLED panel production volume and application scope, the point when it moves toward consumer market from producer market will be another leap for the display industry.

UBI Research’s White OLED Display Annual Report (published April 15, 2015) notes that mass production actualization of large size display using RGB structured OLED panel has not been possible due to the dead space from drooped effect. Therefore, UBI Research analyzed that the additional processes and investment cost in order to improve this increases the production cost resulting in decreased competitiveness.

Currently, OLED panel with WRGB structure is being regarded as the only technology that can achieve large size display. As key production companies revealed in SID 2014, concentrated efforts in WRGB OLED research and production resulted in approx. 80% of target yield. In 2015, supply rate is estimated to be 600 thousand units, a 40% increase from 2014, and 1.6 million units in 2016. Chinese key panel companies, led by AUO and BOE, also possess pilot lines for large area WRGB OLED panel mass production including Gen8. (Source: White OLED Display Annual Report, UBI Research)

Solution process applied technology is being developed in close pursuit of WRGB OLED, but UBI Research surmises that it will take 3~4 years for the active mass production competing with efficiency and merits of WRGB structure.

UBI Research forecast WRGB OLED’s unrivaled path will continue for another 5 years or so with approx. 150 million units of WRGB OLED display production out of over 1,000 million OLED display units in 2020. Large size white OLED display panel for TV market is expected to record approx. 1.6 million units in 2016 and grow to produce US$ 13,759M in revenue in 2020 (figures 1, 2).

If the selection of WRGB OLED can solve the RGB structure’s limit in large area panel mass production, possible active OLED TV production is anticipated. With the publication of UBI Research’s report the timing of this is expected to be a point of much discussion. Additionally, further analysis is needed on whether WRGB OLED is really the only technology for large size display, and if so for how long WRGB OLED’s peerless growth can last.

White OLED Shipment and Revenue

Chinese Companies’ Aggressive Chase, BOE’s Active Secondary Investment for OLED

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It was revealed that public tendering began regarding BOE’s 5.5G AM-OLED project on ICB Operator, a Chinese international tendering network site.

BOE possesses Gen 5.5 AMOLED line in Ordos, and is preparing mass production using SNU’s evaporator. It is analyzed that the additional investment regarding Gen 5.5 AMOLED project has been confirmed as SNU evaporator yield has mostly settled. It is estimated that BOE’s mass production of AMOLED panel for mobile will be able to begin earnestly in the second half of the year.

BOE, OLED Project Public Tender List

BOE, OLED Project Public Tender List

<Source: ICB Operator>

Chinese panel companies aiming for mass production of AMOLED panel for mobile in 2015 are Visionox, Truly, Tianma, and EverDisplay as well as BOE. Of these, EverDisplay is known to be already supplying panel’s sample base.

The focus is now on how the active mass production of Chinese OLED panel companies will affect the OLED industry which is currently being led by Korea’s Samsung Display and LG Display.