[2015 OLED Evaluation Seminar] Can LG Display and Samsung Display Become OLED Market’s Rule Maker?

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By Hyun Jun Jang

 

At 2015 OLED Evaluation Seminar (December 4) hosted by UBI Research, UBI Research’s president Choong Hoon Yi gave a talk titled AMOLED Panel Industry Trend and Market Forecast discussing OLED industry until 2015 and forecasting 2016 OLED market.

 

Yi presented 2 issues related to flexible OLED. The first issues he discussed was regarding foldable types in foldable display. Yi explained that in-folding is where display is placed inside and out-folding has display on the outside, and revealed that in-folding type is mainly being developed. He also added that these technologies will be useful in FinTech (financial technology: new form of financial technology using mobile, social network, big data, etc.).

 

According to Yi, another issue for flexible display is film application. In order to increase the yield of flexible display, film has to replace cover glass. However, this could lead to unpleasant touch sensation and Yi emphasized technology such as polishing has to be applied to improve this to convince the consumers.

 

Regarding the market, Yi estimated that the total global smartphone market will grow to record approximately 2,000 million units until 2020, with Samsung Electronics’ 400 million units. He also estimated that the OLED display proportion of Samsung’s Galaxy series will continue to increase and that most of Galaxy products will have AMOLED panel in 2019. Of this, Yi announced that flexible OLED and rigid OLED are to record approximately 280 million units and 120 million units respectively. He also forecast that the OLED TV market will grow into approximately 11 million units and that materials and equipment companies will rapidly grow.

 

At present, the display market is entering low growth state, and companies are focusing on strengthening the market competitiveness through new technology development and production potential increase. Samsung Display is actively striving to increase OLED panel’s supply for external companies. LG Display announced 1.84 billion KRW investment for world’s largest OLED focused P10 factory and other areas.

 

Yi reported that as flexible OLED evolves, the mobile display resolution competition of the present will disappear, and he estimated that as LTPS-LCD market decreases, the sales of related panel companies, such as BOE, Sharp, JDI, and LGD, will diminish.

 

Yi also told the audience that he is expecting Samsung Electronics to put OLED TV on the market from 2018 and the sales of the companies, Sharp, AUO, and CSOT, that were supplying them with LCD panels will fall. Essentially, he explained that as the OLED market grows, LCD dealing companies’ position will weaken which will lead to the strengthening of OLED panel production and related companies’ position.

 

When asked about the future of Korean display panel companies, Yi replied that when LCD and OLED are competing, set companies decides the market. However, if OLED can unite the market, Yi emphasized that the display panel will be rebranded as Rule Maker and LG Display and Samsung Display will be in its center.

 

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Korea’s Survival Hangs on OLED; Government Support is Urgently Needed

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The last 5 years of budget for Korean semiconductor, which is a key industry for the nation, and display related industry’s original technology development expenses was researched and analyzed.

 

Electronic information device sector’s expenses can be categorized into semiconductor, display, LED/lighting, and evaluation maintenance fee.

 
In 2011, 130,000 million KRW was provided as technology development expense, but since then the amount annually decreased. In 2015, the amount was 95,000 million KRW, but in 2016, it is estimated to decrease further 42% and only 55,000 million KRW is expected to be provided.

 

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Semiconductor funding for 2015 occupies 58% of the total budget with 54,800 million KRW. Although that amount will be reduced to 35,600 million KRW in 2016, it is expected to occupy 65% of the total funding.

 

For display section, the 2015 funding is only 19,500 million KRW, a 21% of the total budge. In 2016, this is estimated to fall to 17%.

 

The government funding for display sector, which is the core of Korean electronic information industry, is around the same level as LED/Lighting sector.

 

The rapid reduction of government funding for display industry is expected to cause much difficulty in future display business.

 

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The Korean display panel market that is being maintained by 2 companies, Samsung Display and LG Display, recorded 62 billion KRW in 2012. However, it fell to 52 billion KRW in 2014, and the market power is gradually weakening. As Chinese companies are becoming more active in LCD market, Korean companies’ price competitiveness is waning in low-priced panel market.

 

If BOE’s Gen10.5 line begins operation in 2018, Korean display companies’ market power is analyzed to rapidly fall in LCD market. In order for the Korean display business to take-off again, now is the time for the government to fund OLED panel which has high added value.

AMOLED Smartphone to Exceed 200 Million Units This Year

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It is anticipated that AMOLED display equipped smartphone will exceed 200 million units this year.

 

According to a market research company UBI Research, AMOLED equipped smartphone recorded 60 million units in Q3 2015, and estimated the total shipment of this year to be above 220 million units. This is approximately a 40% increase compared to last year’s result of 160 million units.

 

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This increase of shipment for AMOLED applied smartphone in 2015 is analyzed to be due to AMOLED panel application to low-to-mid priced smartphone and increase in the number of models produced.

 

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Q3 2015 performance of 60 million units is a 26% QoQ, and 80% YoY, and analyzed to be showing a rapid growth.

 

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LG OLED TV Records Highest Monthly Sales Volume

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LG Electronics’ strategy of OLED promotion and OLED TV price reduction appears to be working successfully.

 

On November 3, LG Electronics reported that the October sales exceeded 4,500 units, twice the volume of early 2015. Particularly, the sales volume of the first week of October exceeded 2,000 units and contributed to breaking the monthly sales volume record.

 

The OLED TV’s bigger price drops from the last week of September seem to have led the high sales volume in the first week of October. According to Amazon, 55inch FHD curved OLED TV fell to US$ 1,797 from October, approximately a 28% drop from August’s US$ 2,499. 55inch UHD curved OLED TV and UHD flat OLED TV also fell to the US$ 2,000 range, making the price difference with UHD LCD TV to be US$ 500. This price competitiveness is analyzed to contribute to the increased sales volume.

 

Aggressive marketing is also a factor for this sales volume growth. In September, LG Electronics installed OLED TV in 39 key airports in 23 countries including the US, Germany, and Russia, and revealed plan to install approximately 200 units of OLED TV until the end of October. Advertisement of OLED TV can also be easily seen in Korean subway stations. LG Electronics’ OLED promotion strategy, revealed during the Q2 performance announcement appears to be effective.

 

Recently, LG Electronics announced their aim to lead the OLED TV market through strengthening OLED=LG image and OLED TV and UHD TV product diversification.

 

 

LG 55inch OLED TV Price Changes

LG 55inch OLED TV Price Changes

LG Electronics Strives to Establish OLED=LG Image

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On October 29, during the performance announcement, LG Electronics revealed their plan to carry out aggressive marketing through establishment of OLED=LG image.

 

LG Electronics Home Entertainment business reported that the TV shipment doubled in this quarter compared its previous quarter due to OLED TV and UHD TV product mix. LG Electronics reported that OLED TV market expansion from Korea and North America into Europe and Russia among others contributed to the sales increase.

 

LG Electronics is anticipating sales increase in Q4 from peak TV market and general market promotion brought premium TV sales expansion. Accordingly, LG Electronics forecast their Q4 sales to be similar to 2014 and that business profit to increase slightly due to improvement in TV’s profit stabilization.

 

Regarding aggressive marketing from Chinse TV companies including Hisense, and TCL, Jinho Ha of LG Electronics Home Entertainment planning department, admitted the threat. However, through premium TV technology such as smart TV, design, and OLED, Ha explained that they will secure product superiority. He also added that Chinse companies’ North American TV market share is around 3% in terms of volume and remains minimal in revenue.

 

New premium OLED TV release brought better than expected response from consumers. It is also receiving positive reviews; several media have selected the product as this year’s TV. The company reported that they will strive to expand the market through extension from the premium TV.

 

LG Electronics’ total revenue was announced to be 13,000 million USD* with business profit of 270 million USD. Home Entertainment department reported 4,000 million USD, a 9% increase from previous quarter, with business profit of 33 million USD.

 

* 1 USD = 1,100 KRW

LG Display Reveals Confidence in OLED

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On October 22, LG Display emphasized their conviction in large area OLED and plastic OLED once again when announcing the performance results held in LG Twin Towers. LG Display revealed that their future business will be OLED and will lead the market through OLED.

 

LG Display’s CFO Sang-don Kim announced that OLED is the top priority in terms of portfolio, and regarding display’s future direction, explained that there is new momentum through automotive, IoT, and commercial display. He also added that the sales did not quite meet what was estimated earlier this year but it is on proper track.

 

LG Display is estimating 400-500 thousand units of OLED TV panel shipment for TV and aiming for 1 million units next year. Regarding the poor sales, he gave trial errors in new technology development, which was the main focus, as the reason. LG Display will plan optimized investment after market trend consideration.

 

In 2015, 55inch or larger panel for TV occupied 8% of the shipment, but the target is gradually increasing it to 20% or higher. LG Display highlighted TVs are becoming larger at a fast pace; 65inch and 77inch OLED TV, rather than what was expected to be the main product 55inch, showed higher than expected sales. Kim explained that to maximize production cost reduction of OLED panel, they are internally adjusting material cost and yield. He also forecast that the demand will increase through production increasing projects.

 

LG Display recorded 7,000 million USD* of revenue in 2015 Q3. This 7% increase compared to its previous quarter is due to the increase of shipment area through TV’s panel size increase and success of product mix. Business profit fell by 32% compared to previous quarter with 300 million USD*. LG Display revealed they will push for profit improvement through inventory level management and operation rate adjustment. They also reported they will strengthen competitiveness through synergy with OLED lighting business and showed anticipation for future.

 

* 1 USD = 1,100 KRW

 

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Samsung to Increase External Transaction by More Than 30%

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Samsung Electronics reported a third-quarter earnings through a conference call on October 29 local time. Samsung Display’s Chang Hoon Lee revealed that OLED panel’s production cost can now compete against LCD and the company has plans to increase the external transaction ratio by more than 30% of yield.

The display business department was expected to have a difficult time in Q3 2015 due to the smartphone market’s slowdown of growth and latecomers’ competitiveness increase. However, with the key customer base’s release of new products and increase of new clientele, and secured operation ratio, the performance results improved.

Lee also revealed 2016 strategy of increasing the low-to-medium priced products, expanding the new market, diversifying products, and procuring transaction base. Lee also added that Samsung will prepare to secure new growth power through transparent, mirror, HUD, and automotive display development via technology leadership in areas such as flexible OLED.

It was also announced that the additional installation of OLED line will be decided after examining the market status. A3 line has been in operation since April. Supply competitiveness will be strengthened through complementary investment for existing line.

Samsung Electronics recorded a 6% increase compared to the previous quarter with revenue of USD 47 billion. With the help of currency exchange rate, business profit showed approximately USD455 million compared to the previous quarter with USD 6.7 billion.

Samsung Display Expands AMOLED Panel Supply. A Green Light for AMOLED Business?

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On October 7, Samsung Electronics announced tentative Q3 performance results. The announced sales figure and operating profit are approximately US$ 46,000 million and US$ 7,000 million each. These figures are an increase of 5.07% from previous quarter’s sales (US$ 44 thousand million) and a 5.8% increase from previous quarter’s operating profit (US$ 6,000 million), much higher numbers than industry’s expectations.

 

Compared to the same period in 2014, operating profit increased by 79.80%, and since last year’s Q4, the rise is continuing for the 4th quarter. The display business department’s much higher figures than expected is considered to be the main reason for this performance increase.

 

The major cause for this positive effects is increase in demand for general class AMOLED panel through Samsung Display’s aggressive procurement of customer base; AMOLED panel is applied to Samsung Electronics’ mid to low priced smartphones and there is great increase in AMOLED panel applied products by set companies of other countries such as China.

 

Due to the increased demand, Samsung Display’s operation rate rose, and it is estimated that this will also greatly affect material companies’ performance improvement.

LG UHD OLED TV Price Falls Once More

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The price of OLED TV by LG Electronics is falling fast. The 55inch flat UHD OLED TV (55EF9500), released last month, fell to $3,999 in 3 weeks, a 27% decrease from the initial $5,499. This price decrease is much faster than that of LG Electronics’ curved model of 55inch UHD OLED TV released in April.

 

Samsung Electronics’ 55inch SUHD TV, UN55JS9000, showed approximately over $2,500 price difference in comparison with 55EF9500 between the 1st week and the 2nd week of September. However, in the 3rd week, UN55JS9000 and 55EF9500 each showed 4% and 15% of decrease rate to record $2,497 and $3,999 respectively, with approximately $1,500 difference. This is the highest reduction rate for LG Electronics’ OLED TV.

 

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In addition to the price reduction, LG Electronics is marketing their products aggressively. They are in the process of installing OLED TV this month in 39 key airports in 23 countries including the US, Germany, and Russia, with plans to install approximately 200 units of OLED TV by the end of October.

Q2 AMOLED Market, the Largest So Far

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According to UBI Research’s Weekly OLED Analysis Report, Q2 AMOLED panels recorded the largest shipment and sales so far. With 56 million units, the Q2 shipment increased by 35% in comparison with Q1, and a 19% increase compared to the same period last year. US$ 2,800 million was recorded for sales, which is a 65% increase compared to its previous quarter.

 

Last quarter’s AMOLED market growth is due to Samsung Display’s AMOLED panel supply volume for Chinese set companies and increase in LG Display’s flexible OLED panel production for smartwatch.

 

Q2 AMOLED Shipment

Q2 AMOLED Shipment